Why Tennis Is Great for Betfair Trading
Tennis prices change a lot because the scoring system naturally creates turning points. A single break of serve can shift the implied probability significantly, and markets often overreact to short-term momentum. Unlike football, there are no draws in standard match odds markets, so the two-outcome structure is simpler for beginners.
- Frequent price movement: breaks of serve, set points, tie-breaks
- Clear market drivers: serve advantage, fatigue, injury, momentum
- Two-outcome match odds: easier to hedge and manage than 3-way markets
- Good liquidity: especially in ATP/WTA, Grand Slams, and televised matches
Key Tennis Markets on Betfair
Match Odds
The Match Odds market is where most tennis trading happens. You can back or lay either player and exit later if the price moves. Beginners should spend most of their learning time here.
Set Betting / Correct Score
These markets can be tradable but are more complex and often less liquid. They are usually not the best starting point unless you already understand match odds well.
Game / Set Winner Markets
These can offer opportunities around breaks of serve and pressure moments, but they move fast. If you’re new, keep it simple: start with match odds and focus on clean entries and exits.
Understanding Price Movement in Tennis
Tennis is a sport where the market reacts strongly to serve. Holding serve is expected at many levels, so a break can cause a sharp price shift. To trade tennis well, you need to understand why the odds move.
Break of serve
A break is one of the biggest price drivers in tennis. But not all breaks are equal. A break early in a set might be less decisive than a break at 5–5 or when a player is serving for the set. Market reaction is often larger in high-leverage moments.
Momentum vs reality
The market can overreact to short runs of points, especially in-play. “Momentum” can be real, but it can also be misleading. Many profitable tennis trades come from recognising when the market has moved too far relative to the true match situation.
Injuries and medical timeouts
Injury news can move prices instantly. Be cautious with trades around medical timeouts because information is incomplete and markets can gap quickly.
Beginner Tennis Trading Approaches (Overview)
The best beginner plan is to learn one or two simple approaches, trade small, and track results. Here are common categories you’ll see:
1) Back-to-lay when a favourite starts slowly
Sometimes a strong player starts slowly and drifts. If you believe the player’s true chance hasn’t changed much, a drift can create an opportunity to back at a bigger price and lay later if they stabilise.
2) Lay-to-back after an overreaction to a break
Markets can overreact when a player breaks early. If the broken player is still serving well and creating chances, you might lay the leader at a too-short price and then back later if the match “reverts” (break back, tie-break, or set stabilisation).
If you want the concept in general terms, see: Lay-to-back trading strategy.
3) Trading the second set after a one-sided first set
A common tennis pattern is a one-sided first set followed by a more competitive second set. Some traders look for opportunities when the market assumes the match is “over” too early. This is not guaranteed — it’s about price, not prediction.
4) Scalping small moves (advanced for beginners)
Scalping can work in tennis, but it’s easy to underestimate commission and execution risk. If you scalp, keep it simple, avoid ultra-tight trades, and always know the cost of commission.
Planning Entries and Exits (What Separates Traders)
Tennis trading becomes far easier when you treat every trade as a plan rather than a reaction. Before you enter, decide:
- Why this price is attractive (value or expected movement)
- What event would move the price in your favour (break, hold pattern, momentum shift)
- Where you will exit if it goes well (target price or event-based exit)
- Where you will exit if it goes badly (stop, time-based exit, or predefined loss)
Event-based exits vs price-based exits
Many tennis traders use event-based thinking (“exit after a break”, “reduce after a break back”), but still use price to confirm they are getting a reasonable trade. The key is consistency: you should not be improvising your exits under pressure.
Hedging in Tennis: Greening Up Properly
Tennis is well-suited to hedging because the market is two-outcome and moves frequently. Once you have a favourable move, you can hedge to:
- Lock in profit across both players
- Reduce exposure if the match becomes uncertain
- Smooth your results over time
Use the hedge calculator so you don’t guess your stakes: Back/Lay Hedge Calculator. For a step-by-step explanation, see: How to use Betfair hedge stakes.
Value Betting Thinking in Tennis (EV Basics)
Even if you primarily trade price movement, value thinking helps you avoid entering at bad prices. Ask: “Is the market implying a probability that feels too low or too high given the match situation?”
Useful reading/tools: Implied probability, Expected value (EV) guide, EV Calculator.
Risk Management for Tennis Traders
Keep stakes small in-play
Tennis markets can gap quickly after key points. Beginners should keep stakes small and build experience before increasing size.
Respect losing runs
Even “good spots” lose. A player can break and still lose the set; a player can look injured and still recover. Understanding variance is essential.
Read: Bankroll variance explained and Kelly staking guide.
Know your downside on lays
If you lay a player at higher odds, liability grows fast. Always calculate it: Lay Liability Calculator.
Common Tennis Trading Mistakes
Trading every match
Selectivity matters. Focus on liquid matches and players you understand, and avoid “random” in-play trades.
Overreacting to a single game
A break can be meaningful, but it can also be noise. Look at serve quality, return pressure, and match context rather than one moment.
No exit plan
Most beginner losses come from improvising under pressure. Define exits before entering.
Ignoring commission in small trades
Tight scalps can be wiped out by fees. Understand commission and avoid trades with tiny margins.
FAQs
Is tennis easier to trade than football?
Many beginners find tennis easier because match odds are two-outcome and price movement is frequent. However, it’s still challenging in-play and requires discipline.
Should I trade in-play or pre-match?
Pre-match is calmer. In-play offers more opportunities but adds speed and pressure. If you’re new, start with small stakes and simple rules.
Do I always hedge after a favourable move?
Not necessarily. Many traders hedge to smooth results, but others take partial profit or let positions run. The key is to be consistent and manage risk.
Which tools should I use most?
Most tennis traders use the hedge calculator regularly, plus EV thinking and commission awareness to avoid poor prices.
Related tools
Related guides
Next Steps
Keep tennis trading simple: pick liquid matches, plan entries and exits, hedge with accurate numbers, and track your results. If you want to deepen your understanding, review implied probability and EV concepts and practise with small stakes before increasing size.
- Learn price fundamentals: Implied probability
- Check value properly: EV Calculator
- Hedge accurately: Hedge Calculator
- Control risk: Variance guide