What does EV mean in betting?

Expected value is the long-run average outcome of a bet. Positive EV means your estimated probability is higher than the market implies.

Does EV guarantee profit?

No. EV is a long-run concept and short-term results can vary widely even with a positive edge.

Which probability should I use?

Use your own estimated win chance, ideally based on analysis rather than the market odds.

Expected Value (EV) Calculator

Test whether a price is worth taking before you stake. This calculator compares your probability estimate to the market and shows the expected value per bet.

Spot value by comparing your edge to the odds.
Estimate expected profit or loss per stake.
Sanity-check bets before you commit bankroll.

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Expected Value (EV) Calculator

Check whether a price is value by comparing your probability to the market.

Find +EV bets

Expected value (EV) tells you whether a price is in your favour over the long run. If your estimated win chance is higher than the market’s implied probability, the bet is theoretically value. Use this calculator to sanity-check your edge before staking real money.

How it works

How the calculation works

Core formula: EV = [p × (odds − 1) − (1 − p)] × stake

Worked example: Odds 3.2, stake £5, win chance 40%.

Win profit = £5 × (3.2 − 1) = £11.00.
EV = 0.40 × £11.00 − 0.60 × £5.00 = £1.40 per bet.

Always gamble responsibly. This calculator is for information only and does not guarantee profit.

FAQs

What does positive EV mean?

It means your estimated probability is higher than the market’s implied chance, giving a theoretical edge.

Should I include commission?

If you are betting on an exchange, enter your commission rate to see a more realistic net EV.

Can EV be negative even if the odds look high?

Yes. If your estimated chance is lower than the market’s implied probability, EV will be negative.